Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Haka · BTTS No · Over 2.5 · 2-0
Haka are 3W-2D-0L in their last 5 (WWDDW), averaging 2.40 scored and 0.40 conceded, while KäPa are 3W-1D-1L in their last 5 (WWDWL), averaging 1.60 scored and 1.20 conceded. Both teams scored in 5 of those 10 games and 6 passed 2.5 goals, and Haka hold a 26.4-point power-rating edge (65.5 v 39.2). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 2-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 14.1% in the Ykkösliiga, while Haka holds the strongest overall chance at 78% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 44% BTTS chance and 61% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Haka
Probability
77.9%
Model confidence
14.1%
Haka has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 12 · GA 2 · avg 2.40/0.40
GF 8 · GA 6 · avg 1.60/1.20