Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Japan W · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 2-1 (10%), 2-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Haiti W 1-5 Japan W
Original prediction
Japan W
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 17 September 2026 at 07:36 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.01-1.20| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 17.58 | 5.2% | 32.8% | 27.6 pts |
| Draw | 9.35 | 9.8% | 24.0% | 14.3 pts |
| Away | 1.07 | 85.1% | 43.2% | -41.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.07 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-41.9 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.2–110%
- 3.2–09%
Predicted outcome
Japan W
Probability
43.2%
Model confidence
43.2%
Japan W has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
Haiti WWWLLL
GF 7 · GA 12 · avg 1.40/2.40
BTTS 4/5O2.5 5/5
Japan WDWWWW
GF 20 · GA 2 · avg 4.00/0.40
BTTS 1/5O2.5 4/5
Haiti WJapan W
83.3Attack42.9
66.7Defence61.9
100.0Form42.9
86.5Power48.6
1.79xG1.08