Haitivs
Costa Rica
COMPLETEDWorld · CONCACAF Nations League · 9/27/2026, 11:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Haiti · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Haiti 2-0 Costa Rica
Original prediction
Haiti
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 16 September 2026 at 18:20 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.36 | 38.9% | 42.7% | 3.8 pts |
| Draw | 3.33 | 27.6% | 25.9% | -1.8 pts |
| Away | 2.74 | 33.5% | 31.5% | -2.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.36 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
3.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–111%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–27%
Predicted outcome
Haiti
Probability
42.7%
Model confidence
42.7%
Haiti has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
HaitiWLWDL
GF 9 · GA 6 · avg 1.80/1.20
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
Costa RicaLLLLD
GF 6 · GA 17 · avg 1.20/3.40
BTTS 3/5O2.5 5/5
HaitiCosta Rica
41.7Attack44.4
50.0Defence22.2
25.0Form33.3
42.1Power35.7
1.91xG1.43