Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Hai Phong · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Hai Phong 1-2 Thanh Hóa
Original prediction
Hai Phong
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 20 September 2026 at 20:08 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.94 | 46.5% | 40.5% | -6.0 pts |
| Draw | 3.18 | 28.4% | 27.1% | -1.3 pts |
| Away | 3.60 | 25.1% | 32.4% | 7.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-6.0 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–28%
Predicted outcome
Hai Phong
Probability
40.5%
Model confidence
40.5%
Hai Phong has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
Hai PhongLWLDD
GF 5 · GA 7 · avg 1.00/1.40
BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
Thanh HóaLLWLL
GF 4 · GA 12 · avg 0.80/2.40
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
Hai PhongThanh Hóa
66.7Attack66.7
16.7Defence33.3
50.0Form50.0
45.8Power53.0
1.66xG1.52