Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Ha Noi · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-1 (10%), 0-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Ha Noi 1-0 Bắc Ninh
Original prediction
Ha Noi
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 20 September 2026 at 20:08 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.44 | 63.2% | 39.3% | -23.9 pts |
| Draw | 4.28 | 21.2% | 26.6% | 5.5 pts |
| Away | 5.78 | 15.7% | 34.1% | 18.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.44 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-23.9 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–110%
- 3.0–010%
Predicted outcome
Ha Noi
Probability
39.3%
Model confidence
39.3%
Ha Noi has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
Ha NoiDLLDL
GF 5 · GA 12 · avg 1.00/2.40
BTTS 5/5O2.5 3/5
Bắc NinhWWLWD
GF 7 · GA 5 · avg 1.40/1.00
BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
Ha NoiBắc Ninh
33.3Attack16.7
0.0Defence83.3
0.0Form50.0
17.3Power53.0
1.09xG1.39