Gzira Unitedvs
Mosta
COMPLETEDMalta · Premier League · 10/14/2026, 5:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Mosta · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 0-1 (12%), 0-2 (12%), 1-1 (12%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Gzira United 1-1 Mosta
Original prediction
Mosta
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 5 September 2026 at 00:11 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.26 | 40.0% | 25.5% | -14.5 pts |
| Draw | 3.36 | 26.9% | 25.0% | -1.9 pts |
| Away | 2.73 | 33.1% | 49.5% | 16.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.36 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
16.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.0–112%
- 2.0–212%
- 3.1–112%
Predicted outcome
Mosta
Probability
49.5%
Model confidence
49.5%
Mosta has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
Gzira UnitedDLLLL
GF 2 · GA 13 · avg 0.40/2.60
BTTS 2/5O2.5 4/5
MostaLDWWW
GF 7 · GA 5 · avg 1.40/1.00
BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
Gzira UnitedMosta
13.3Attack46.7
13.3Defence66.7
6.7Form66.7
16.4Power62.3
0.81xG1.78