Gzira Unitedvs
Hamrun Spartans
COMPLETEDMalta · Premier League · 10/18/2026, 9:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Hamrun Spartans · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 0-2 (13%), 0-1 (12%), 1-1 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Gzira United 2-2 Hamrun Spartans
Original prediction
Hamrun Spartans
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 16 September 2026 at 00:27 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 7.11 | 12.7% | 15.5% | 2.8 pts |
| Draw | 4.36 | 20.8% | 21.4% | 0.7 pts |
| Away | 1.36 | 66.5% | 63.0% | -3.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 3.36 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-3.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.0–213%
- 2.0–112%
- 3.1–111%
Predicted outcome
Hamrun Spartans
Probability
63.0%
Model confidence
63.0%
Hamrun Spartans has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 4 · GA 8 · avg 0.80/1.60
GF 11 · GA 5 · avg 2.20/1.00