WK-LeagueWK-League
Saturday, 18 July 2026Last updated 12:42
Gyeongju W

Gyeongju W

Home
L
00
Full time
Gumi Sportstoto W

Gumi Sportstoto W

Away
L
GoalVio prediction
52% confidence
Gyeongju W(47%)
Most likely exact score1-0
Win probability
Gyeongju W
47%
Draw
35%
Gumi Sportstoto W
18%
Predicted winner is based on the highest win probability.
Intelligence snapshot
Attack
Gyeongju W
9
Gumi Sportstoto W
9
Defence
Gyeongju W
66
Gumi Sportstoto W
66
Momentum
Gyeongju W
0
Gumi Sportstoto W
0
Danger (xG)
Gyeongju W
0.00
Gumi Sportstoto W
0.00
Both teams to score
No

The model projects 1.54 xG for Gyeongju W and 1.31 xG for Gumi Sportstoto W — strong and meaningful attacking threat respectively. Both sides are generating enough chance quality to make scoring a realistic expectation, which is the primary driver of the BTTS projection.The projected 2-1 scoreline reflects both teams contributing to the goal tally. The xG gap between the sides is narrow (0.23), meaning neither defence is expected to completely shut the other out.

Over 2.5 goals
No

The model projects a combined xG of 2.84 — elevated attacking volume for this fixture. A combined xG above 2.5 is the model's primary signal that the match is likely to produce more than two goals, and this fixture clears that threshold.The projected 2-1 scoreline clears the 2.5-goal threshold — 3 goals in the most likely outcome. The xG distribution places the most weight on scorelines that clear 2.5, though the margin above the threshold is not large.

xG for (Gyeongju W)
0.00
avg per match
xG for (Gumi Sportstoto W)
0.00
avg per match
xG against (Gyeongju W)
0.90
avg per match
xG against (Gumi Sportstoto W)
0.90
avg per match

Momentum trend

last 5 matches
Gyeongju WGyeongju W
L
Gumi Sportstoto WGumi Sportstoto W
LW

Probability breakdown

52% confidence
Gyeongju W47%
Draw35%
Gumi Sportstoto W18%

Gyeongju W leads with 47% — the model's highest-probability outcome for this fixture.

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Analysis

Gyeongju W Backed to Win — Model Projects 1-0

Gyeongju W take on Gumi Sportstoto W in WK-League.

Key factors

: 🏟️ Home Advantage Goalvio applies an 8% xG boost for home teams based on empirical data showing home sides score 10–15% more goals at their own ground. Gyeongju W's Elo-adjusted home strength gives them a 58% expected score in this fixture — a factor that tips the balance when the underlying numbers are close.
: 🔄 Head-to-Head Record Gyeongju W have won 5 of the last 10 meetings between these sides — a historically dominant record that the model treats as a meaningful signal when the underlying stats are otherwise close.
: ⚠️ Upset Risk Gumi Sportstoto W have won 0 of their last 5 matches — a run of form that keeps this fixture competitive. While Gyeongju W carry the stronger underlying metrics, Gumi Sportstoto W's recent results mean the gap is narrower than the headline verdict implies.

Why GoalVio backs this

Gyeongju W have won 5 of the last 10 meetings between these sides. Historical head-to-head dominance captures tactical matchup advantages that aggregate stats can miss — when one team consistently finds ways to beat the same opponent, that pattern is a meaningful signal in its own right.

Biggest risk: The xG gap between these sides is narrow — a small swing in form, a set-piece goal, or a tactical adjustment could flip the result. The model favours Gyeongju W, but this is not a fixture where the outcome is a foregone conclusion. If Gumi Sportstoto W score first, the game becomes genuinely open.

Risk factors

  • These sides have drawn 4 of their last 10 meetings — history suggests a tight, unpredictable contest.
  • The xG gap is narrow at 0.23 — a small swing in form or tactics could flip the result.
  • With both teams expected to score, the game could remain open until the final whistle — late goals are a real possibility.

Recent form

Gyeongju W

Gyeongju W

L
@ Incheon Red Angels
15 May 2026
01
Gumi Sportstoto W

Gumi Sportstoto W

L
vs Boeun Sangmu W
10 Jul 2026
01
W
@ Boeun Sangmu
16 May 2026
21

Frequently asked questions

Who will win Gyeongju W vs Gumi Sportstoto W?

GoalVio's model predicts Gyeongju W to win with 52% confidence.

What is the predicted score for Gyeongju W vs Gumi Sportstoto W?

The most likely scoreline according to GoalVio's Skellam-DC model is 1-0.

Will both teams score in Gyeongju W vs Gumi Sportstoto W?

GoalVio's model predicts BTTS: No — at least one team is expected to keep a clean sheet.

Will there be over 2.5 goals in Gyeongju W vs Gumi Sportstoto W?

GoalVio's model predicts Over 2.5 Goals: No — fewer than 3 goals are expected.

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About this prediction
GoalVio Prediction Engine v5 — updated dailyPowered by Poisson, xG and momentum modelsAccuracy last 30 days: 54%Last model update:
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Responsible gambling: Predictions are generated by a statistical model for informational purposes only. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results. Learn more