Gwangju FCvs
Ulsan Hyundai FC
COMPLETEDSouth-Korea · K League 1 · 10/11/2026, 5:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Ulsan Hyundai FC · BTTS No · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 0-2 (14%), 0-1 (13%), 1-1 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Gwangju FC 4-3 Ulsan Hyundai FC
Original prediction
Ulsan Hyundai FC
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 14 September 2026 at 17:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 4.50 | 20.7% | 18.1% | -2.6 pts |
| Draw | 4.02 | 23.2% | 22.8% | -0.4 pts |
| Away | 1.66 | 56.2% | 59.1% | 2.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 3.02 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
2.9 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.0–214%
- 2.0–113%
- 3.1–110%
Predicted outcome
Ulsan Hyundai FC
Probability
59.1%
Model confidence
59.1%
Ulsan Hyundai FC has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 11 · avg 1.40/2.20
GF 7 · GA 4 · avg 1.40/0.80