K League 1K League 1
Wednesday, 22 July 2026Last updated 12:42
Gwangju FC

Gwangju FC

Home
LD
11
Full time
Gimcheon Sangmu FC

Gimcheon Sangmu FC

Away
DD
Gwangju Football Stadium
GoalVio prediction
51% confidence
Gwangju FC(22%)
Most likely exact score1-0
Win probability
Gwangju FC
22%
Draw
27%
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
51%
Predicted winner is based on the highest win probability.
Intelligence snapshot
Attack
Gwangju FC
18
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
34
Defence
Gwangju FC
27
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
66
Momentum
Gwangju FC
17
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
33
Danger (xG)
Gwangju FC
0.45
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
0.90
Both teams to score
No
Over 2.5 goals
No
xG for (Gwangju FC)
0.45
avg per match
xG for (Gimcheon Sangmu FC)
0.90
avg per match
xG against (Gwangju FC)
1.80
avg per match
xG against (Gimcheon Sangmu FC)
0.90
avg per match

Momentum trend

last 5 matches
Gwangju FCGwangju FC
LDLL
Gimcheon Sangmu FCGimcheon Sangmu FC
DDLD

Probability breakdown

51% confidence
Gwangju FC22%
Draw27%
Gimcheon Sangmu FC51%

Gimcheon Sangmu FC leads with 51% — the model's highest-probability outcome for this fixture.

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Analysis

Match insights

Gwangju FC head into this in K League 1 fixture at Gwangju Football Stadium in mixed form (LD), while Gimcheon Sangmu FC arrive in mixed form (DD). Gwangju FC have a 0% win rate across their last 2 matches, compared to 0% for Gimcheon Sangmu FC over 2 games.

The model rates Gwangju FC's attack at 18/100 against a 66/100 Gimcheon Sangmu FC defence, and Gimcheon Sangmu FC's attack at 34/100 against a 27/100 Gwangju FC backline — a balanced matchup with neither side holding a clear structural edge.

Gwangju FC have struggled at home recently, failing to win any of their last 3 home games. They average 0.3 goals scored and 1.7 conceded per home match. Gimcheon Sangmu FC have found it tough away from home, failing to win any of their last 2 away matches. They average 1.0 goals scored and 1.5 conceded per away game.

There is no head-to-head data between Gwangju FC and Gimcheon Sangmu FC in the engine.

The GoalVio engine projects Gwangju FC to win with 51% confidence. and a most likely scoreline of 1-0. Win probabilities: Gwangju FC 2180%, Draw 2709%, Gimcheon Sangmu FC 5111%. BTTS: No, Over 2.5: No.

Recent form

Gwangju FC

Gwangju FC

L
vs Pohang Steelers
11 Jul 2026
03
D
vs Ulsan Hyundai FC
5 Jul 2026
11
L
@ Incheon United
16 May 2026
04
L
vs FC Seoul
12 May 2026
01
Gimcheon Sangmu FC

Gimcheon Sangmu FC

D
vs Bucheon FC 1995
11 Jul 2026
11
D
vs Jeju United FC
5 Jul 2026
11
L
@ Jeonbuk Motors
17 May 2026
01
D
@ FC Anyang
13 May 2026
22

Frequently asked questions

Who will win Gwangju FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC?

GoalVio's model predicts Gwangju FC to win with 51% confidence.

What is the predicted score for Gwangju FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC?

The most likely scoreline according to GoalVio's Skellam-DC model is 1-0.

Will both teams score in Gwangju FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC?

GoalVio's model predicts BTTS: No — at least one team is expected to keep a clean sheet.

Will there be over 2.5 goals in Gwangju FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC?

GoalVio's model predicts Over 2.5 Goals: No — fewer than 3 goals are expected.

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About this prediction
GoalVio Prediction Engine v5 — updated dailyPowered by Poisson, xG and momentum modelsAccuracy last 30 days: 54%Last model update:
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Responsible gambling: Predictions are generated by a statistical model for informational purposes only. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results. Learn more