Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Sunnersta · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 0-2 (11%), 0-3 (10%), 1-2 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Gute 2-2 Sunnersta
Original prediction
Sunnersta
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 17 September 2026 at 00:43 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 4.04 | 22.6% | 12.8% | -9.9 pts |
| Draw | 4.15 | 22.1% | 16.2% | -5.8 pts |
| Away | 1.66 | 55.3% | 71.0% | 15.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 3.15 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
15.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.0–211%
- 2.0–310%
- 3.1–29%
Predicted outcome
Sunnersta
Probability
71.0%
Model confidence
71.0%
Sunnersta has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GuteLLWLW
GF 7 · GA 9 · avg 1.40/1.80
BTTS 3/5O2.5 5/5
SunnerstaWLWWW
GF 18 · GA 4 · avg 3.60/0.80
BTTS 3/5O2.5 4/5
GuteSunnersta
46.7Attack86.7
49.3Defence70.7
42.7Form70.7
47.2Power73.2
0.84xG2.65