Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Gute · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-1 (10%), 1-1 (10%), 2-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Gute 4-0 Lidingö
Original prediction
Gute
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 26 August 2026 at 00:53 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.80 | 50.5% | 61.3% | 10.9 pts |
| Draw | 3.79 | 23.9% | 19.7% | -4.2 pts |
| Away | 3.54 | 25.6% | 19.0% | -6.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.80 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
10.9 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–110%
- 2.1–110%
- 3.2–010%
Predicted outcome
Gute
Probability
61.3%
Model confidence
61.3%
Gute has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GuteWLLWL
GF 11 · GA 8 · avg 2.20/1.60
BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
LidingöLLWLL
GF 4 · GA 11 · avg 0.80/2.20
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
GuteLidingö
50.0Attack37.0
48.1Defence35.2
42.6Form25.9
47.7Power35.5
2.22xG1.04