Guiseley AFCvs
Lancaster City
COMPLETEDEngland · Non League Premier - Northern · 8/28/2026, 6:45:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Guiseley AFC · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-0 (10%), 2-1 (10%), 3-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Guiseley AFC 1-2 Lancaster City
Original prediction
Guiseley AFC
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 26 August 2026 at 00:52 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.90 | 47.2% | 59.9% | 12.7 pts |
| Draw | 3.39 | 26.4% | 21.1% | -5.2 pts |
| Away | 3.39 | 26.4% | 19.0% | -7.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
12.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–010%
- 2.2–110%
- 3.3–09%
Predicted outcome
Guiseley AFC
Probability
59.9%
Model confidence
59.9%
Guiseley AFC has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 12 · GA 5 · avg 2.40/1.00
GF 6 · GA 7 · avg 1.20/1.40