Guiseley AFCvs
Bradford (Park Avenue)
COMPLETEDEngland · FA Cup · 10/3/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Guiseley AFC · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Guiseley AFC 1-0 Bradford (Park Avenue)
Original prediction
Guiseley AFC
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 24 September 2026 at 00:42 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.84 | 49.1% | 41.6% | -7.5 pts |
| Draw | 3.55 | 25.5% | 27.7% | 2.1 pts |
| Away | 3.56 | 25.4% | 30.7% | 5.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.84 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-7.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–111%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–27%
Predicted outcome
Guiseley AFC
Probability
41.6%
Model confidence
41.6%
Guiseley AFC has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 14 · GA 6 · avg 2.80/1.20
GF 8 · GA 4 · avg 1.60/0.80