Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (15%), 0-0 (13%), 0-1 (13%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Guingamp 1-2 PAU
Original prediction
Draw
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 2 October 2026 at 00:01 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.19 | 42.4% | 34.8% | -7.6 pts |
| Draw | 3.38 | 27.4% | 30.1% | 2.7 pts |
| Away | 3.07 | 30.2% | 35.1% | 4.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
2.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–115%
- 2.0–013%
- 3.0–113%
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
30.1%
Model confidence
35.1%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GuingampLWLWD
GF 7 · GA 8 · avg 1.40/1.60
BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
PAUWWWLD
GF 9 · GA 6 · avg 1.80/1.20
BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
GuingampPAU
41.7Attack37.5
45.8Defence66.7
33.3Form45.8
43.2Power52.3
0.95xG1.16