Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Guingamp · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 1-0 (13%), 0-0 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Guingamp 3-3 Nantes
Original prediction
Guingamp
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 26 August 2026 at 01:01 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.77 | 33.6% | 42.9% | 9.3 pts |
| Draw | 3.28 | 28.4% | 27.7% | -0.6 pts |
| Away | 2.45 | 38.0% | 29.4% | -8.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.28 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
9.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.1–013%
- 3.0–011%
Predicted outcome
Guingamp
Probability
42.9%
Model confidence
42.9%
Guingamp has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GuingampLWLDL
GF 5 · GA 8 · avg 1.00/1.60
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
NantesLLLWL
GF 8 · GA 10 · avg 1.60/2.00
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
GuingampNantes
22.2Attack33.3
66.7Defence11.1
33.3Form0.0
43.7Power19.2
1.48xG0.89