Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Annecy · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-1 (10%), 0-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Guingamp 2-1 Annecy
Original prediction
Annecy
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 29 August 2026 at 00:03 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.20 | 42.3% | 34.7% | -7.6 pts |
| Draw | 3.24 | 28.7% | 27.6% | -1.1 pts |
| Away | 3.21 | 29.0% | 37.7% | 8.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
8.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–110%
- 3.0–010%
Predicted outcome
Annecy
Probability
37.7%
Model confidence
37.7%
Annecy has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GuingampDDLWL
GF 7 · GA 8 · avg 1.40/1.60
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
AnnecyWDLWW
GF 7 · GA 5 · avg 1.40/1.00
BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
GuingampAnnecy
46.7Attack46.7
46.7Defence66.7
33.3Form66.7
45.2Power62.3
1.11xG1.33