Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Guinea · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-0 (10%), 0-1 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Guinea 1-0 Kenya
Original prediction
Guinea
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 3 September 2026 at 09:51 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.54 | 59.4% | 40.8% | -18.6 pts |
| Draw | 3.48 | 26.2% | 28.4% | 2.2 pts |
| Away | 6.32 | 14.4% | 30.8% | 16.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.54 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-18.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–010%
- 3.0–110%
Predicted outcome
Guinea
Probability
40.8%
Model confidence
40.8%
Guinea has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GuineaLLLDD
GF 4 · GA 7 · avg 0.80/1.40
BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
KenyaDWDLL
GF 6 · GA 11 · avg 1.20/2.20
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
GuineaKenya
33.3Attack33.3
33.3Defence66.7
0.0Form33.3
23.7Power45.3
1.20xG1.26