Guinea-Bissauvs
Nigeria
COMPLETEDWorld · Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification · 9/29/2026, 4:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Nigeria · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 1-0 (10%), 0-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Guinea-Bissau 3-0 Nigeria
Original prediction
Nigeria
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 3 September 2026 at 09:51 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 6.77 | 13.5% | 32.9% | 19.3 pts |
| Draw | 3.63 | 25.3% | 27.9% | 2.6 pts |
| Away | 1.50 | 61.2% | 39.3% | -21.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-21.9 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.1–010%
- 3.0–09%
Predicted outcome
Nigeria
Probability
39.3%
Model confidence
39.3%
Nigeria has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 3 · GA 9 · avg 0.60/1.80
GF 10 · GA 5 · avg 2.00/1.00