Friendlies Clubs
Guimaraes
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Chaves
AwayFriendly match — very hard to predict, not included in accuracy.
The model projects 2.16 xG for Guimaraes and 1.01 xG for Chaves — strong and meaningful attacking threat respectively. Both sides are generating enough chance quality to make scoring a realistic expectation, which is the primary driver of the BTTS projection.The projected 1-1 scoreline reflects both teams contributing to the goal tally. Even with Guimaraes holding the stronger xG profile, the opposition's meaningful attacking output is sufficient to keep BTTS in play.
The model projects a combined xG of 3.17 — elevated attacking volume. A combined xG below 2.5 is the model's primary signal that the match is unlikely to produce more than two goals, and this fixture falls below that threshold.The projected 1-1 scoreline stays under the 2.5-goal mark. The probability grid is dominated by scorelines of two goals or fewer, with the over 2.5 market requiring a result that sits outside the model's most likely outcomes.The defensive profiles of both sides are stronger than their attacking counterparts — Guimaraes's Defensive Stability (46) and Chaves's (66) both suggest teams capable of limiting the opposition. When both defences are this organised, the model expects a lower-scoring environment.
Momentum trend
last 5 matchesGuimaraesChavesProbability breakdown
Chaves leads with 33% — the model's highest-probability outcome for this fixture.
Guimaraes vs Chaves: Model Points to a Closely-Fought Draw
Guimaraes host Chaves in Friendlies Clubs. Guimaraes have recorded LWWWWD in recent matches while Chaves arrive with a run of WWWLWL. These sides have met 10 times recently, averaging 3.7 goals per game.
Why GoalVio backs this
The xG model projects 2.16 for Guimaraes and 1.01 for Chaves. The gap of 1.14 is not large enough to decisively separate the sides — neither team is creating chances at a level that justifies a clear winner projection.
Biggest risk: null have won 4 of their last 10 matches — a run of form the model acknowledges but cannot fully override. If null carry that momentum into this fixture and score first, the upset probability rises significantly above what the headline verdict suggests.
Risk factors
- ⚠The head-to-head record is competitive — the underdog has won 8 of the last 10 meetings.
- ⚠Live conditions — weather, team news, and in-game momentum — can always override statistical projections.
- ⚠The Poisson model works on averages — individual moments of quality can decide matches that data suggests should be close.
Recent form
Guimaraes
Chaves
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Guimaraes vs Chaves?
GoalVio's model predicts a draw with 33% confidence.
What is the predicted score for Guimaraes vs Chaves?
The most likely scoreline according to GoalVio's Skellam-DC model is 1-1.
Will both teams score in Guimaraes vs Chaves?
GoalVio's model predicts BTTS: Yes — both teams are expected to score.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Guimaraes vs Chaves?
GoalVio's model predicts Over 2.5 Goals: No — fewer than 3 goals are expected.