Guimaraes Bvs
Pacos Ferreira
COMPLETEDPortugal · Liga 3 · 10/11/2026, 1:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Guimaraes B · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Guimaraes B 1-0 Pacos Ferreira, with an exact score probability of 15%.
Prediction record
Final result
Guimaraes B 0-1 Pacos Ferreira
Original prediction
Guimaraes B
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 18 September 2026 at 15:57 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.08 | 43.7% | 42.4% | -1.3 pts |
| Draw | 3.24 | 28.0% | 29.7% | 1.7 pts |
| Away | 3.21 | 28.3% | 27.9% | -0.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-1.3 pts
Projected Score
Guimaraes B 1–0 Pacos Ferreira
Exact score probability: 15%
Predicted outcome
Guimaraes B
Probability
42.4%
Model confidence
42.4%
Guimaraes B has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 4 · GA 5 · avg 0.80/1.00
GF 4 · GA 9 · avg 0.80/1.80