Guilsfieldvs
Llanuwchllyn
COMPLETEDWales · FAW Championship · 10/3/2026, 1:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Guilsfield · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-1 (9%), 3-1 (9%), 2-0 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Guilsfield 1-0 Llanuwchllyn
Original prediction
Guilsfield
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 4 September 2026 at 03:45 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.31 | 69.4% | 66.1% | -3.4 pts |
| Draw | 5.27 | 17.2% | 17.9% | 0.7 pts |
| Away | 6.79 | 13.4% | 16.0% | 2.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.31 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-3.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–19%
- 2.3–19%
- 3.2–07%
Predicted outcome
Guilsfield
Probability
66.1%
Model confidence
66.1%
Guilsfield has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 6 · avg 1.60/1.20
GF 10 · GA 11 · avg 2.00/2.20