Guilsfieldvs
Gresford Athletic
COMPLETEDWales · FAW Championship · 9/12/2026, 1:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Guilsfield · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 3-1 (9%), 2-1 (9%), 3-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Guilsfield 1-1 Gresford Athletic
Original prediction
Guilsfield
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 29 August 2026 at 00:05 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.01-1.20| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.19 | 75.1% | 70.2% | -4.9 pts |
| Draw | 5.62 | 15.8% | 16.7% | 0.8 pts |
| Away | 9.86 | 9.0% | 13.2% | 4.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 4.62 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-4.9 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.3–19%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.3–09%
Predicted outcome
Guilsfield
Probability
70.2%
Model confidence
70.2%
Guilsfield has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 8 · avg 1.60/1.60
GF 1 · GA 16 · avg 0.20/3.20