Guilsfieldvs
Denbigh Town
COMPLETEDWales · FAW Championship · 10/10/2026, 1:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Guilsfield · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-1 (9%), 3-1 (9%), 2-0 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Guilsfield 0-2 Denbigh Town
Original prediction
Guilsfield
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 20 September 2026 at 01:50 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.67 | 54.0% | 60.4% | 6.3 pts |
| Draw | 3.97 | 22.7% | 19.9% | -2.9 pts |
| Away | 3.88 | 23.2% | 19.8% | -3.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
6.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–19%
- 2.3–19%
- 3.2–07%
Predicted outcome
Guilsfield
Probability
60.4%
Model confidence
60.4%
Guilsfield has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 3 · avg 1.60/0.60
GF 8 · GA 12 · avg 1.60/2.40