Águilasvs
Real Madrid II
COMPLETEDSpain · Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · 9/12/2026, 11:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (15%), 0-0 (14%), 1-0 (13%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Águilas 1-0 Real Madrid II
Original prediction
Draw
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 30 August 2026 at 00:06 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.23 | 28.2% | 35.3% | 7.1 pts |
| Draw | 3.10 | 29.4% | 30.2% | 0.8 pts |
| Away | 2.15 | 42.4% | 34.5% | -7.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
0.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–115%
- 2.0–014%
- 3.1–013%
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
30.2%
Model confidence
35.3%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 5 · GA 5 · avg 1.00/1.00
GF 4 · GA 3 · avg 0.80/0.60