Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Ibiza · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-1 (12%), 0-0 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Águilas 1-2 Ibiza
Original prediction
Ibiza
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 21 September 2026 at 08:47 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.81 | 32.5% | 29.9% | -2.6 pts |
| Draw | 3.09 | 29.5% | 27.5% | -2.0 pts |
| Away | 2.41 | 38.0% | 42.5% | 4.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.41 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
4.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–112%
- 3.0–011%
Predicted outcome
Ibiza
Probability
42.5%
Model confidence
42.5%
Ibiza has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
ÁguilasDLLDW
GF 5 · GA 8 · avg 1.00/1.60
BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
IbizaDWLLW
GF 5 · GA 5 · avg 1.00/1.00
BTTS 2/5O2.5 1/5
ÁguilasIbiza
33.3Attack42.9
42.9Defence57.1
28.6Form47.6
37.9Power51.4
0.98xG1.32