Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Huesca · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (15%), 0-0 (12%), 0-1 (12%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Águilas 2-2 Huesca
Original prediction
Huesca
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 12 September 2026 at 06:24 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.73 | 33.4% | 32.2% | -1.2 pts |
| Draw | 2.88 | 31.6% | 30.6% | -1.1 pts |
| Away | 2.61 | 35.0% | 37.3% | 2.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 1.88 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
2.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–115%
- 2.0–012%
- 3.0–112%
Predicted outcome
Huesca
Probability
37.3%
Model confidence
37.3%
Huesca has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
ÁguilasLLDWL
GF 3 · GA 8 · avg 0.60/1.60
BTTS 2/5O2.5 1/5
HuescaWDDLD
GF 6 · GA 7 · avg 1.20/1.40
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
ÁguilasHuesca
27.8Attack40.0
44.4Defence53.3
27.8Form40.0
36.5Power46.1
0.98xG1.22