Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Águilas · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 1-0 (14%), 0-0 (12%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Águilas 0-1 Hércules
Original prediction
Águilas
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 6 September 2026 at 04:55 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.51 | 36.3% | 40.6% | 4.3 pts |
| Draw | 2.95 | 30.8% | 29.8% | -0.9 pts |
| Away | 2.76 | 33.0% | 29.5% | -3.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
4.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.1–014%
- 3.0–012%
Predicted outcome
Águilas
Probability
40.6%
Model confidence
40.6%
Águilas has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
ÁguilasDWLDW
GF 5 · GA 5 · avg 1.00/1.00
BTTS 2/5O2.5 1/5
HérculesWWLLL
GF 4 · GA 6 · avg 0.80/1.20
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
ÁguilasHércules
50.0Attack0.0
50.0Defence33.3
50.0Form0.0
50.0Power15.3
1.38xG0.86