Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Águilas 0-0 Alcorcon, with an exact score probability of 17%.
Prediction record
Final result
Águilas 2-2 Alcorcon
Original prediction
Draw
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 26 August 2026 at 01:05 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.60 | 34.9% | 34.6% | -0.3 pts |
| Draw | 2.92 | 31.1% | 31.4% | 0.3 pts |
| Away | 2.66 | 34.0% | 34.1% | 0.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.92 · Draw 1.92 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
0.3 pts
Projected Score
Águilas 0–0 Alcorcon
Exact score probability: 17%
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
31.4%
Model confidence
34.6%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
ÁguilasWLWLW
GF 6 · GA 3 · avg 1.20/0.60
BTTS 1/5O2.5 1/5
AlcorconLLDWD
GF 5 · GA 5 · avg 1.00/1.00
BTTS 3/5O2.5 1/5
ÁguilasAlcorcon
50.0Attack38.6
50.0Defence66.7
50.0Form44.7
50.0Power51.5
0.93xG0.92