Águilas IIvs
Unión Molinense
COMPLETEDSpain · Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · 10/4/2026, 10:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Águilas II · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (15%), 0-0 (11%), 1-0 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Águilas II 1-1 Unión Molinense
Original prediction
Águilas II
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 4 October 2026 at 00:04 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.86 | 31.9% | 36.0% | 4.2 pts |
| Draw | 3.17 | 28.8% | 29.6% | 0.8 pts |
| Away | 2.31 | 39.4% | 34.3% | -5.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.17 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
4.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–115%
- 2.0–011%
- 3.1–011%
Predicted outcome
Águilas II
Probability
36.0%
Model confidence
36.0%
Águilas II has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 0 · GA 0 · avg 0.00/0.00
GF 2 · GA 4 · avg 0.67/1.33