Águilavs
Inca Aruba
COMPLETEDEl-Salvador · Primera Division · 9/12/2026, 9:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Águila · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-0 (15%), 2-0 (13%), 1-1 (12%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Águila 3-1 Inca Aruba
Original prediction
Águila
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 29 August 2026 at 00:13 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.30 | 69.3% | 63.6% | -5.7 pts |
| Draw | 4.71 | 19.1% | 21.7% | 2.5 pts |
| Away | 7.78 | 11.6% | 14.8% | 3.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.30 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-5.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–015%
- 2.2–013%
- 3.1–112%
Predicted outcome
Águila
Probability
63.6%
Model confidence
63.6%
Águila has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
ÁguilaDDWLL
GF 8 · GA 8 · avg 1.60/1.60
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
Inca ArubaWWDLD
GF 4 · GA 5 · avg 0.80/1.00
BTTS 2/5O2.5 1/5
ÁguilaInca Aruba
44.4Attack18.5
51.9Defence40.7
29.6Form29.6
43.4Power33.3
1.69xG0.70