Águilavs
Fuerte San Francisco
COMPLETEDEl-Salvador · Primera Division · 8/30/2026, 9:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Águila · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (15%), 0-0 (14%), 1-0 (13%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Águila 4-1 Fuerte San Francisco
Original prediction
Águila
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 26 August 2026 at 01:07 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.61 | 56.0% | 42.6% | -13.5 pts |
| Draw | 3.45 | 26.1% | 28.3% | 2.2 pts |
| Away | 5.04 | 17.9% | 29.1% | 11.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.61 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-13.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–115%
- 2.0–014%
- 3.1–013%
Predicted outcome
Águila
Probability
42.6%
Model confidence
42.6%
Águila has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 5 · GA 9 · avg 1.00/1.80
GF 3 · GA 7 · avg 0.60/1.40