Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
FAS · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-1 (11%), 0-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Águila 3-1 FAS
Original prediction
FAS
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 3 October 2026 at 12:28 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.34 | 38.3% | 33.7% | -4.6 pts |
| Draw | 3.11 | 28.8% | 28.0% | -0.8 pts |
| Away | 2.72 | 32.9% | 38.3% | 5.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
5.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–111%
- 3.0–010%
Predicted outcome
FAS
Probability
38.3%
Model confidence
38.3%
FAS has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
ÁguilaDWWWL
GF 11 · GA 6 · avg 2.20/1.20
BTTS 3/5O2.5 4/5
FASDLWWD
GF 6 · GA 5 · avg 1.20/1.00
BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
ÁguilaFAS
56.3Attack56.3
58.3Defence68.8
50.0Form64.6
55.5Power64.2
1.10xG1.32