Águilavs
Cacahuatique
COMPLETEDEl-Salvador · Primera Division · 10/3/2026, 9:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Águila · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-0 (14%), 1-1 (13%), 0-0 (12%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Águila 4-1 Cacahuatique
Original prediction
Águila
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 6 September 2026 at 04:38 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.50 | 59.7% | 57.0% | -2.7 pts |
| Draw | 3.80 | 23.6% | 24.4% | 0.8 pts |
| Away | 5.38 | 16.7% | 18.6% | 1.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.50 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-2.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–014%
- 2.1–113%
- 3.0–012%
Predicted outcome
Águila
Probability
57.0%
Model confidence
57.0%
Águila has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 4 · avg 1.20/0.80
GF 2 · GA 6 · avg 0.40/1.20