Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Águila · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-0 (10%), 1-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Águila 2-2 Alianza
Original prediction
Águila
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 28 August 2026 at 00:04 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.09 | 42.5% | 38.6% | -4.0 pts |
| Draw | 3.07 | 29.0% | 27.8% | -1.2 pts |
| Away | 3.13 | 28.5% | 33.6% | 5.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.07 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-4.0 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–010%
- 3.1–010%
Predicted outcome
Águila
Probability
38.6%
Model confidence
38.6%
Águila has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
ÁguilaWLLLD
GF 9 · GA 10 · avg 1.80/2.00
BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
AlianzaWDLWD
GF 5 · GA 4 · avg 1.00/0.80
BTTS 1/5O2.5 1/5
ÁguilaAlianza
47.6Attack38.9
47.6Defence61.1
28.6Form44.4
42.3Power49.5
1.23xG1.18