Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Gubbio 0-0 Perugia, with an exact score probability of 26%.
Prediction record
Final result
Gubbio 1-3 Perugia
Original prediction
Draw
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 10 September 2026 at 17:43 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.87 | 31.7% | 31.3% | -0.4 pts |
| Draw | 3.09 | 29.5% | 32.8% | 3.4 pts |
| Away | 2.34 | 38.9% | 35.9% | -2.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
3.4 pts
Projected Score
Gubbio 0–0 Perugia
Exact score probability: 26%
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
32.8%
Model confidence
35.9%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GubbioLLDWW
GF 8 · GA 8 · avg 1.60/1.60
BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
PerugiaWLLLW
GF 3 · GA 9 · avg 0.60/1.80
BTTS 1/5O2.5 3/5
GubbioPerugia
28.1Attack37.7
63.2Defence64.0
42.1Form41.2
47.1Power48.9
0.65xG0.76