Gubbiovs
Ostia Mare
COMPLETEDItaly · Serie C - Girone B · 9/20/2026, 6:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Gubbio 0-0 Ostia Mare, with an exact score probability of 20%.
Prediction record
Final result
Gubbio 0-2 Ostia Mare
Original prediction
Draw
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 18:39 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.30 | 39.3% | 34.0% | -5.4 pts |
| Draw | 3.10 | 29.1% | 31.4% | 2.3 pts |
| Away | 2.87 | 31.6% | 34.6% | 3.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
2.3 pts
Projected Score
Gubbio 0–0 Ostia Mare
Exact score probability: 20%
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
31.4%
Model confidence
34.6%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GubbioDWWWL
GF 14 · GA 6 · avg 2.80/1.20
BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
Ostia MareLLWLL
GF 5 · GA 8 · avg 1.00/1.60
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
GubbioOstia Mare
28.1Attack50.0
63.2Defence50.0
42.1Form50.0
47.1Power50.0
0.78xG0.90