Guayaquil City FCvs
Leones del Norte
COMPLETEDEcuador · Liga Pro · 9/19/2026, 9:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Guayaquil City FC 0-0 Leones del Norte, with an exact score probability of 24%.
Prediction record
Final result
Guayaquil City FC 1-1 Leones del Norte
Original prediction
Draw
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 18 September 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.17 | 41.9% | 36.0% | -5.9 pts |
| Draw | 3.00 | 30.2% | 32.5% | 2.3 pts |
| Away | 3.25 | 27.9% | 31.5% | 3.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 2.00 · Draw 2.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
2.3 pts
Projected Score
Guayaquil City FC 0–0 Leones del Norte
Exact score probability: 24%
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
32.5%
Model confidence
36.0%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
Guayaquil City FCWLLWW
GF 11 · GA 9 · avg 2.20/1.80
BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
Leones del NorteLDWLL
GF 5 · GA 7 · avg 1.00/1.40
BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
Guayaquil City FCLeones del Norte
36.7Attack33.3
60.0Defence67.8
43.3Form46.7
49.2Power51.0
0.75xG0.73