Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Guatemala · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Guatemala 1-0 Suriname
Original prediction
Guatemala
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 16 September 2026 at 18:21 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.11 | 43.3% | 42.5% | -0.8 pts |
| Draw | 3.32 | 27.6% | 26.2% | -1.4 pts |
| Away | 3.14 | 29.1% | 31.3% | 2.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.11 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-0.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–111%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–27%
Predicted outcome
Guatemala
Probability
42.5%
Model confidence
42.5%
Guatemala has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GuatemalaDWLLL
GF 9 · GA 9 · avg 1.80/1.80
BTTS 2/5O2.5 4/5
SurinameDWWLL
GF 5 · GA 7 · avg 1.00/1.40
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
GuatemalaSuriname
88.9Attack55.6
66.7Defence66.7
44.4Form77.8
60.5Power70.7
1.80xG1.44