Guatemalavs
El Salvador
COMPLETEDWorld · CONCACAF Nations League · 9/29/2026, 2:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Guatemala · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 2-1 (10%), 1-0 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Guatemala 6-0 El Salvador
Original prediction
Guatemala
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 16 September 2026 at 18:21 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.00 | 45.7% | 44.4% | -1.3 pts |
| Draw | 3.25 | 28.1% | 26.4% | -1.8 pts |
| Away | 3.51 | 26.1% | 29.2% | 3.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-1.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.2–110%
- 3.1–08%
Predicted outcome
Guatemala
Probability
44.4%
Model confidence
44.4%
Guatemala has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 3 · GA 17 · avg 0.60/3.40
GF 8 · GA 6 · avg 1.60/1.20