Guastatoyavs
Xelajú
COMPLETEDGuatemala · Liga Nacional · 9/13/2026, 11:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (15%), 0-0 (12%), 0-1 (12%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Guastatoya 2-1 Xelajú
Original prediction
Draw
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 30 August 2026 at 00:09 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.25 | 40.4% | 34.5% | -5.9 pts |
| Draw | 2.76 | 32.9% | 30.2% | -2.7 pts |
| Away | 3.41 | 26.6% | 35.3% | 8.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-2.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–115%
- 2.0–012%
- 3.0–112%
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
30.2%
Model confidence
35.3%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GuastatoyaDWLLW
GF 6 · GA 7 · avg 1.20/1.40
BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
XelajúDWWDL
GF 9 · GA 4 · avg 1.80/0.80
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
GuastatoyaXelajú
16.7Attack44.4
50.0Defence66.7
16.7Form44.4
31.3Power51.4
1.02xG1.20