Guastatoyavs
Marquense
COMPLETEDGuatemala · Liga Nacional · 8/29/2026, 9:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Guastatoya · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (15%), 0-0 (13%), 1-0 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Guastatoya 1-2 Marquense
Original prediction
Guastatoya
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 26 August 2026 at 01:02 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.61 | 56.7% | 40.7% | -16.0 pts |
| Draw | 3.48 | 26.2% | 29.0% | 2.8 pts |
| Away | 5.33 | 17.1% | 30.3% | 13.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-16.0 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–115%
- 2.0–013%
- 3.1–011%
Predicted outcome
Guastatoya
Probability
40.7%
Model confidence
40.7%
Guastatoya has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 3 · GA 9 · avg 0.60/1.80
GF 5 · GA 6 · avg 1.00/1.20