Guastatoyavs
Aurora
COMPLETEDGuatemala · Liga Nacional · 10/4/2026, 11:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Guastatoya · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 1-0 (12%), 0-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Guastatoya 2-1 Aurora
Original prediction
Guastatoya
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 6 September 2026 at 01:29 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.48 | 61.8% | 47.6% | -14.1 pts |
| Draw | 3.87 | 23.6% | 27.4% | 3.7 pts |
| Away | 6.28 | 14.6% | 25.0% | 10.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.48 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-14.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.1–012%
- 3.0–010%
Predicted outcome
Guastatoya
Probability
47.6%
Model confidence
47.6%
Guastatoya has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 4 · avg 1.60/0.80
GF 7 · GA 10 · avg 1.40/2.00