Guangzhou E-Powervs
Heilongjiang Lava Spring
COMPLETEDChina · League One · 10/11/2026, 11:30:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Guangzhou E-Power · BTTS No · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 3-0 (13%), 2-0 (13%), 4-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Guangzhou E-Power 3-1 Heilongjiang Lava Spring
Original prediction
Guangzhou E-Power
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 13 September 2026 at 21:08 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.21 | 75.0% | 66.5% | -8.5 pts |
| Draw | 5.75 | 15.7% | 18.9% | 3.1 pts |
| Away | 9.70 | 9.3% | 14.7% | 5.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.21 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-8.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.3–013%
- 2.2–013%
- 3.4–010%
Predicted outcome
Guangzhou E-Power
Probability
66.5%
Model confidence
66.5%
Guangzhou E-Power has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 11 · GA 4 · avg 2.20/0.80
GF 5 · GA 8 · avg 1.00/1.60