Guangxi Hengchenvs
Changchun Yatai
COMPLETEDChina · League One · 10/17/2026, 11:30:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Guangxi Hengchen · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 2-0 (11%), 1-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Guangxi Hengchen 2-2 Changchun Yatai
Original prediction
Guangxi Hengchen
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 20 September 2026 at 12:24 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.36 | 66.1% | 62.0% | -4.1 pts |
| Draw | 4.29 | 21.0% | 20.8% | -0.2 pts |
| Away | 6.99 | 12.9% | 17.2% | 4.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 3.29 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-4.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.2–011%
- 3.1–010%
Predicted outcome
Guangxi Hengchen
Probability
62.0%
Model confidence
62.0%
Guangxi Hengchen has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 5 · GA 3 · avg 1.00/0.60
GF 4 · GA 5 · avg 0.80/1.00