Guangdong Mingtuvs
Shanghai Second
COMPLETEDChina · League Two · 9/12/2026, 11:30:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Guangdong Mingtu · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Guangdong Mingtu 1-0 Shanghai Second, with an exact score probability of 20%.
Prediction record
Final result
Guangdong Mingtu 1-0 Shanghai Second
Original prediction
Guangdong Mingtu
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 8 September 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.01 | 44.7% | 43.9% | -0.8 pts |
| Draw | 2.94 | 30.6% | 30.5% | -0.1 pts |
| Away | 3.63 | 24.8% | 25.7% | 0.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.01 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-0.8 pts
Projected Score
Guangdong Mingtu 1–0 Shanghai Second
Exact score probability: 20%
Predicted outcome
Guangdong Mingtu
Probability
43.9%
Model confidence
43.9%
Guangdong Mingtu has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 5 · GA 1 · avg 1.00/0.20
GF 6 · GA 9 · avg 1.20/1.80