Guadeloupevs
St. Lucia
COMPLETEDWorld · CONCACAF Nations League · 10/5/2026, 7:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
St. Lucia · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (10%), 1-2 (9%), 2-2 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Guadeloupe 0-1 St. Lucia
Original prediction
St. Lucia
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 16 September 2026 at 18:21 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 4.12 | 22.2% | 28.2% | 6.1 pts |
| Draw | 3.98 | 22.9% | 24.2% | 1.3 pts |
| Away | 1.66 | 54.9% | 47.6% | -7.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.66 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-7.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–110%
- 2.1–29%
- 3.2–27%
Predicted outcome
St. Lucia
Probability
47.6%
Model confidence
47.6%
St. Lucia has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 11 · GA 6 · avg 2.20/1.20
GF 9 · GA 12 · avg 1.80/2.40