Guadalajaravs
RSD Alcalá
COMPLETEDSpain · Segunda División RFEF - Group 5 · 9/13/2026, 4:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Guadalajara · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 2-1 (9%), 1-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Guadalajara 2-1 RSD Alcalá
Original prediction
Guadalajara
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 30 August 2026 at 00:06 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.96 | 46.2% | 40.3% | -5.9 pts |
| Draw | 3.19 | 28.4% | 28.5% | 0.1 pts |
| Away | 3.57 | 25.4% | 31.2% | 5.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.96 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-5.9 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–09%
Predicted outcome
Guadalajara
Probability
40.3%
Model confidence
40.3%
Guadalajara has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 8 · avg 1.40/1.60
GF 8 · GA 6 · avg 1.60/1.20