Guadalajaravs
Real Valladolid II
COMPLETEDSpain · Segunda División RFEF - Group 5 · 10/25/2026, 4:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Real Valladolid II · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 1-2 (10%), 0-2 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Guadalajara 4-4 Real Valladolid II
Original prediction
Real Valladolid II
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 7 October 2026 at 19:50 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 3.50+| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.79 | 50.8% | 32.9% | -17.9 pts |
| Draw | 3.58 | 25.4% | 26.4% | 1.0 pts |
| Away | 3.81 | 23.8% | 40.7% | 16.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.58 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
16.9 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–111%
- 2.1–210%
- 3.0–29%
Predicted outcome
Real Valladolid II
Probability
40.7%
Model confidence
40.7%
Real Valladolid II has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 9 · avg 1.60/1.80
GF 13 · GA 5 · avg 2.60/1.00