Guadalajaravs
Getafe II
COMPLETEDSpain · Segunda División RFEF - Group 5 · 10/11/2026, 4:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Guadalajara · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 1-0 (12%), 0-0 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Guadalajara 4-1 Getafe II
Original prediction
Guadalajara
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 18 September 2026 at 16:04 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.87 | 48.5% | 43.2% | -5.2 pts |
| Draw | 3.37 | 26.9% | 27.8% | 0.9 pts |
| Away | 3.69 | 24.6% | 28.9% | 4.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.87 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-5.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.1–012%
- 3.0–011%
Predicted outcome
Guadalajara
Probability
43.2%
Model confidence
43.2%
Guadalajara has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 9 · avg 1.60/1.80
GF 3 · GA 5 · avg 0.60/1.00